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Eleventh edition of the Polish construction market survey – “Construction sector in Poland, H2 2009” report

Research Project - construction market
Eleventh edition of the Polish construction market survey – “Construction sector in Poland, H2 2009” report

PMR Research conducted in September this year eleventh semi-annual survey of the Polish construction industry. The study was commissioned by PMR Publications and its results were released in the report “Construction sector in Poland, H2 2009 – Comparative regional analysis and development forecasts for 2009-2012”. The survey was conducted with the aid of the CATI (computer assisted telephone interviewing) technique on the sample of 214 largest construction companies operating in Poland and 130 interviews with the companies’ senior management were completed.

Main report finding is that after the dramatic slump in early 2009, the mood prevailing within the construction industry in Poland is starting to gradually turn more upbeat. Construction companies are more optimistic in their assessments of the market situation and the condition of their enterprises than they were six months ago. Driven by the rising implementation of civil engineering projects, construction and assembly output will see a rise of not less than 5% in 2009, expanding to approx. 8% in 2010. However, construction firms are still very far from optimism levels seen in 2006-2008 regarding market situation.

Over one-fifth of the largest construction companies assess the situation in the Polish construction sector as positive, whereas six months ago, a mere 9% of respondents shared this view. Likewise, companies’ predictions about the development of the construction market situation in the next 12 months demonstrate stronger optimism than in March 2009 – 42% of companies surveyed predict that the market situation will improve, while a paltry 14% expect that it will continue to deteriorate.

Assessment of the current situation in the Polish construction industry

Polish construction companies’ assessment of portfolios of orders has improved to some extent as well – 39% of respondents provided positive assessment of the current number of orders (compared with 31% six months earlier); 30% of companies surveyed held the opposite view. Additionally, companies are more optimistic about the future size of their order portfolios – 49% of respondents expect the number of orders to grow in the next 12 months, while 20% of major builders anticipate falls in the number of orders.

The financial situation of the largest construction companies continues to be rated as good – 71% of companies surveyed believe this to be the case (compared to 60% six months ago). 32% of the major building companies in Poland anticipate that at the end of 2009, the financial standing of their enterprises will be better-off compared to the situation in 2008; exactly the same proportion of respondents take the opposite view.

How do you evaluate your company's present financial standing?

A special summary index portraying the level of the market situation in the Polish construction industry is created on the basis of assessments of the current market situation, the financial standing and portfolio of orders obtained by construction companies. In September 2009, the PMR Construction Climate Indicator had a value of 5.5 pts, showing certain improvement in the market situation in the construction sector in the past six months.

PMR Construction Climate Indicator, July 2004-September 2009

According to companies surveyed, the most attractive segments of the construction market in the two-year horizon include roadwork projects (84% of responses), sports and recreation facilities (31%) power engineering construction (31%) and environmental protection construction (24%). At the opposite end of the spectrum were the following sectors: office construction (5%) and warehouse construction (9%), which were considered the least promising segments of the construction market in the coming two years. The responses largely reflect the current situation in the construction market where road building projects constitute the main driving force behind growth in the construction industry – in the initial three quarters of 2009, the segment reported a year-on-year increase in construction and assembly output of over 40%. In the same period, the growth rate for the entire civil engineering construction segment was over 25%, making up for declines in residential and non-residential construction (-12.8% and -6,5%, respectively).

Full results of the study have been published in the latest PMR Publications report, entitled “Construction sector in Poland, H2 2009 – Comparative regional analysis and development forecasts for 2009-2012”.

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